Importance of parametric uncertainty in predicting probability distributions for burst wait-times in fissile systems
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Published version
Author(s)
Winter, G
Cooling, Christopher
Williams, Mike
Eaton, Matthew
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A method of uncertainty quantification in the calculation of wait-time probability distributions in delayed supercritical systems is presented. The method is based on Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification and makes use of the computationally efficient gamma distribution method for prediction of the wait-time probability distribution. The range of accuracy of the gamma distribution method is examined and parameterised based on the rate and magnitude of the reactivity insertion, the strength of the intrinsic neutron source and the prompt neutron lifetime. The saddlepoint method for inverting the generating function and a Monte Carlo simulation are used as benchmarks against which the accuracy of the gamma distribution method is determined. Finally, uncertainty quantification is applied to models of the Y-12 accident and experiments of Authier et al. (2014) on the Caliban reactor.
Date Issued
2018-09-01
Date Acceptance
2018-04-14
Citation
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2018, 119, pp.117-128
ISSN
0306-4549
Publisher
Elsevier Masson
Start Page
117
End Page
128
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Nuclear Energy
Volume
119
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Grant Number
EP/J002011/1
EP/K503733/1
Subjects
0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering
0299 Other Physical Sciences
Energy
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-05-03