Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales
File(s)Small-area temperature and mortality clean.docx (135.34 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Bennett, James E
Blangiardo, Marta
Fecht, Daniela
Elliott, Paul
Ezzati, Majid
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Warm temperatures adversely affect disease occurrence and death, in extreme conditions as well as when the temperature changes are more modest1,2. Therefore climate change, which is expected to affect both average temperatures and temperature variability, is likely to impact health even in temperate climates. Climate change risk assessment is enriched if there is information on vulnerability and resilience to effects of temperature. Some studies have analysed socio-demographic characteristics that make individuals vulnerable to adverse effects of temperature1,2,3,4. Less is known about community-level vulnerability. We used geo-coded mortality and environmental data and Bayesian spatial methods to conduct a national small-area analysis of the mortality effects of warm temperature for all 376 districts in England and Wales. In the most vulnerable districts, those in London and south/southeast England, odds of dying from cardiorespiratory causes increased by more than 10% for 1 °C warmer temperature, compared with virtually no effect in the most resilient districts, which were in the far north. A 2 °C warmer summer may result in 1,552 (95% credible interval 1,307–1,762) additional deaths, about one-half of which would occur in 95 districts. The findings enable risk and adaptation analyses to incorporate local vulnerability to warm temperature and to quantify inequality in its effects.
Date Issued
2014-04-01
Date Acceptance
2014-01-08
Citation
Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4 (4), pp.269-273
ISSN
1758-678X
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
269
End Page
273
Journal / Book Title
Nature Climate Change
Volume
4
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2014, Springer Nature.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000333669600019&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
MR/K005901/1
G0801056
NF-SI-0611-10136
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY
CASE-CROSSOVER DESIGN
AIR-POLLUTION
CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY
AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE
COLD
ASSOCIATION
DEATHS
SUMMER
WAVES
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2014-03-23