Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: making transparent how design choices shape research results
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to
the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
Date Issued
2020-05
Date Acceptance
2019-10-29
Citation
Psychological Bulletin, 2020, 146 (5), pp.451-479
ISSN
0033-2909
Publisher
American Psychological Association
Start Page
451
End Page
479
Journal / Book Title
Psychological Bulletin
Volume
146
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2020 APA, all rights reserved.
Sponsor
Imperial College London
Identifier
https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fbul0000220
Subjects
Social Sciences
Psychology
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
conceptual replications
crowdsourcing
forecasting
research robustness
scientific transparency
SOCIAL-PSYCHOLOGY
CONCEPTUAL REPLICATIONS
INDIVIDUAL-DIFFERENCES
1ST OFFERS
METAANALYSIS
IMPLICIT
REPLICABILITY
ATTITUDES
SCIENCE
CONSEQUENCES
Adult
Crowdsourcing
Humans
Psychology
Random Allocation
Research Design
Humans
Random Allocation
Psychology
Research Design
Adult
Crowdsourcing
Social Psychology
1505 Marketing
1701 Psychology
1702 Cognitive Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
BUL-2018-1302-R3
Date Publish Online
2020-01-16