Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics.
File(s)1288.pdf (243.55 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Hollingsworth, TD
Ferguson, NM
Anderson, RM
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.
Version
Published version
Date Issued
2007-09
Citation
Emerg Infect Dis, 2007, 13 (9), pp.1288-1294
ISSN
1080-6040
Start Page
1288
End Page
1294
Journal / Book Title
Emerg Infect Dis
Volume
13
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2007 The Authors
Source Volume Number
13
Subjects
Aircraft
Communicable Diseases
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Internationality
Models, Biological
Stochastic Processes
Time Factors
Travel
Coverage Spatial
United States