Changepoint detection in non-exchangeable data
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Published version
Author(s)
Hallgren, Karl L
Heard, Nicholas A
Adams, Niall M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters that change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local correlation patterns, often resulting in many more changepoints fitted than preferable. This article proposes a Bayesian changepoint model that relaxes the assumption of exchangeability within segments. The proposed model supposes data within a segment are m-dependent for some unknown m⩾0 that may vary between segments, resulting in a model suitable for detecting clear discontinuities in data that are subject to different local temporal correlations. The approach is suited to both continuous and discrete data. A novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed to sample from the model; in particular, a detailed analysis of the parameter space is exploited to build proposals for the orders of dependence. Two applications demonstrate the benefits of the proposed model: computer network monitoring via change detection in count data, and segmentation of financial time series.
Date Issued
2022-12-01
Date Acceptance
2022-10-26
Citation
Statistics and Computing, 2022, 32 (6), pp.1-19
ISSN
0960-3174
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
1
End Page
19
Journal / Book Title
Statistics and Computing
Volume
32
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000884738000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Physical Sciences
Computer Science, Theory & Methods
Statistics & Probability
Computer Science
Mathematics
Changepoint detection
Dependent data
Reversible jump MCMC
BINARY SEGMENTATION
BAYESIAN-INFERENCE
SERIES
MODELS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 110
Date Publish Online
2022-11-16