A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations
File(s)rspb.2022.0089.pdf (2.75 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species—questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species). We develop a novel statistical framework enabling identification and classification of time series with similar temporal properties, and use this framework to systematically explore variation in population dynamics and seasonality in anopheline mosquito time series catch data spanning seven species, 40 years and 117 locations across mainland India. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in dynamics across locations and between species in the extent of seasonality and timing of seasonal peaks. However, we show that these diverse dynamics can be clustered into four ‘dynamical archetypes’, each characterized by distinct temporal properties and associated with a largely unique set of environmental factors. Our results highlight that a range of environmental factors including rainfall, temperature, proximity to static water bodies and patterns of land use (particularly urbanicity) shape the dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations, and provide a generically applicable framework to better identify and understand patterns of seasonal variation in vectors relevant to public health.
Date Issued
2022-04-13
Date Acceptance
2022-03-01
Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2022, 289 (1972), pp.1-10
ISSN
0962-8452
Publisher
The Royal Society
Start Page
1
End Page
10
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume
289
Issue
1972
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons AttributionLicense http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the originalauthor and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000788428300006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biology
Ecology
Evolutionary Biology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Anopheles mosquitoes
malaria ecology
population dynamics
seasonality
epidemiology
MALARIA TRANSMISSION INTENSITY
ANOPHELES-FLUVIATILIS
DIPTERA
TEMPERATURE
CULICIDAE
VECTOR
ARABIENSIS
BIONOMICS
FUNESTUS
RAINFALL
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 20220089
Date Publish Online
2022-04-13