Climate change could increase the geographic extent of hendra virus spillover risk.
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.
Date Issued
2018-03-19
Date Acceptance
2018-01-29
Citation
Ecohealth, 2018, 2018
ISSN
1612-9202
Publisher
Springer Verlag
Journal / Book Title
Ecohealth
Volume
2018
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29556762
PII: 10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9
Subjects
Hendra virus
climate change
flying foxes
horses
risk
spillover
Publication Status
Published online
Coverage Spatial
United States