Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle
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Published version
Author(s)
Fissler, T
Ziegel, JF
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.
Date Issued
2016-08-01
Date Acceptance
2016-01-07
Citation
Annals of Statistics, 2016, 44 (4), pp.1680-1707
ISSN
0090-5364
Publisher
Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Start Page
1680
End Page
1707
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Statistics
Volume
44
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000379972900011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Consistency
decision theory
elicitability
Expected Shortfall
point forecasts
propriety
scoring functions
scoring rules
spectral risk measures
Value at Risk
INVARIANT RISK MEASURES
ROBUSTNESS
FUNCTIONALS
INFORMATION
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-07-07