Simulation of the December 2021 Marshall fire with a hybrid stochastic Lagrangian–cellular automata model
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A stochastic model based on a combination of the cellular automata approach for forest fires and a random walk for firebrands and hot gases has been further developed and used to simulate the Marshall fire, Colorado, December 2021. Typical heat release profiles for burning wooden houses from the literature were used to distill information on the burning duration and ignition delay time needed to model the hours-long firebrand emission from wooden buildings in the Marshall area during this fire. In addition to information on vegetation and housing structures from in-person inspection, satellite images were used to estimate various model parameters. The results give reasonable predictions for the extent of the fire and its time evolution. A parametric analysis further highlighted the sensitivity of predictions to the parameters used in the model and suggested areas for improvement. The very low computational cost of the model, ease of operation, and acceptable accuracy suggest that the proposed framework can be used for operational decision-making and damage assessment.
Date Issued
2023-07
Date Acceptance
2023-04-10
Citation
Fire Safety Journal, 2023, 138, pp.1-16
ISSN
0379-7112
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
16
Journal / Book Title
Fire Safety Journal
Volume
138
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711223000632
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
103795
Date Publish Online
2023-04-15