Long memory impact of ocean mesoscale temperature anomalies on tropical cyclone size
File(s)2019GL086165.pdf (15.78 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Bruneau, N
Wang, Shuai
Toumi, R
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mesoscale ocean temperature anomalies modify a tropical cyclone (TC). Through a modeling study we show that, while the maximum wind speed is rapidly restored after the TC passes a warm‐ or cold‐ (eddy size) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the storm size changes are more significant and persistent. The radius of gale force winds and integrated kinetic energy (IKE) can change by more than 10% per degree and this endures several days after crossing an SST anomaly. These properties have a long memory of the impact from the ocean fluxes and depend on the integrated history of SST exposure. They are found to be directly proportional to the storm total precipitation. Accurate continuous forecast of the SST along the track may therefore be of central importance to improving predictions of size and IKE, while instantaneous local SST near the TC core is more important for the forecast of maximum wind speed.
Date Issued
2020-03-28
Date Acceptance
2020-03-03
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (6)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
47
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
©2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
Sponsor
Met Office
Grant Number
P106409
Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2019GL086165
Date Publish Online
2020-03-04