The contribution of anthropogenic influence to more anomalous extreme precipitation in Europe
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Tabari, Hossein
Madani, Kaveh
Willems, Patrick
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Anthropogenic influences can modulate the low‐frequency variability of extreme precipitation and increase the likelihood of flooding events. It is not, however, clear how much and in what manner the low-frequency variability has changed in recent decades as global warming has intensified. Here, we investigate the contribution of anthropogenic influences to the time evolution of extreme precipitation anomalies in different seasons using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and CMIP5 model simulations and observations over Europe. Our results show a latitudinal dependence of changes in extreme precipitation anomalies for all seasons due to anthropogenic impacts. While the contribution of anthropogenic influences to extreme precipitation anomalies at low latitudes (<50°) is less than 8% in all seasons, it goes up to 26% and 41% at mid (50°–60°) and high (>60°) latitudes. Without the offsetting effect of anthropogenic aerosols, anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases alone should have produced larger anomalies than observed. For all seasons, the more extreme the precipitation, the larger the anthropogenic influences.
Date Issued
2020-10-01
Date Acceptance
2020-08-25
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15 (10), pp.1-15
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IoP)
Start Page
1
End Page
15
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
15
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000575676600001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
extreme precipitation anomaly
latitudinal pattern
anthropogenic contribution
Anthropocene
climate change
HEAVY-PRECIPITATION
MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE
DECADAL VARIABILITY
FUTURE CHANGES
CLIMATE-CHANGE
TRENDS
ATTRIBUTION
TEMPERATURE
CMIP5
INDEXES
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 104077
Date Publish Online
2020-10-06