Timing market entry: the mediation effect of market potential
File(s)
Author(s)
Islam, Towhidul
Meade, Nigel
Sood, Ashish
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Timing a multinational firm's entry into a new country is a pivotal decision with long-term impact on the firm's overall performance; thus, a deeper understanding of the drivers of the decision and their interrelationship can yield significant managerial benefits. The authors explore the mediating role of market potential by decomposing the total effects of the decision's main drivers—macroeconomic attractiveness, market concentration, social heterogeneity, and population density—into direct and indirect effects. These decompositions explain the countervailing effects of some drivers that simultaneously make both positive and negative impacts. The data set encompasses mobile 4G broadband penetration in 130 countries, including market entry timings for 28 international operators in 79 countries. The authors establish the nature of the mediation effect of market potential on the drivers of entry timing. Using early penetration data, they utilize growth mixture modeling to divide the countries into four latent segments. They validate this segmentation using machine learning with the four key drivers as classifiers; the process establishes macroeconomic attractiveness as the predominant classifier. The analysis offers entry-timing guidance at both pre- and postlaunch stages.
Date Issued
2022-03
Date Acceptance
2021-12-01
Citation
Journal of International Marketing, 2022, 30 (1), pp.40-54
ISSN
1069-031X
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Start Page
40
End Page
54
Journal / Book Title
Journal of International Marketing
Volume
30
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000736496800001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Business
Business & Economics
CULTURAL-DIFFERENCES
FIRM
GROWTH-MODELS
INNOVATION DIFFUSION
INTERNATIONAL DIFFUSION
INVESTMENT
machine learning
macroeconomic attractiveness
market entry timings
market potential
mobile broadband phones
RANDOM FORESTS
SEGMENTATION
SIMULTANEOUS MODEL
Social Sciences
SPECIAL-ISSUE
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-12-06