Estimating multiclass service demand distributions using Markovian arrival processes
File(s)2022-tomacs.pdf (6.65 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Wang, Runan
Casale, Giuliano
Filieri, Antonio
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Building performance models for software services in DevOps is costly and error-prone. Accurate service demand distribution estimation is critical to precisely modeling queueing behaviors and performance prediction. However, current estimation methods focus on capturing the mean service demand, disregarding higher-order moments of the distribution that still can largely affect prediction accuracy. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate higher moments of the service demand distribution for a microservice from monitoring traces. We first generate a closed queueing model to abstract software performance and use it to model the departure process of requests completed by the software service as a Markovian arrival process. This allows formulating the estimation of service demand into an optimization problem, which aims to find the first multiple moments of the service demand distribution that maximize the likelihood of the MAP using generated the measured inter-departure times. We then estimate the service demand distribution for different classes of service with a maximum likelihood algorithm and novel heuristics to mitigate the computational cost of the optimization process for scalability. We apply our method to real traces from a microservice-based application and demonstrate that its estimations lead to greater prediction accuracy than exponential distributions assumed in traditional service demand estimation approaches for software services.
Date Issued
2022-11-08
Date Acceptance
2022-10-21
Citation
ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 2022, 33 (1-2), pp.1-26
ISSN
1049-3301
Publisher
Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)
Start Page
1
End Page
26
Journal / Book Title
ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation
Volume
33
Issue
1-2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 Association for Computing Machinery. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive Version of Record was published in ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, https://doi.org/10.1145/3570924
Identifier
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3570924
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-11-08