Climate impact of aircraft-induced cirrus assessed from satellite observations before and during COVID-19
File(s)Quaas_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064051.pdf (946.72 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Quaas, Johannes
Gryspeerdt, Edward
Vautard, Robert
Boucher, Olivier
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Aircraft produce condensation trails, which are thought to increase high-level cloudiness under certain conditions. However
the magnitude of such an effect and whether this contributes substantially to the radiative forcing due to the aviation sector
remain uncertain. The very substantial, near-global reduction in air traffic in response to the COVID-19 outbreak offers an
unprecedented opportunity to identify the anthropogenic contribution to the observed cirrus coverage and thickness. Here we
show, using an analysis of satellite observations for the period March-May 2020, that in the 20% of the Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitudes with the largest air traffic reduction, cirrus fraction was reduced by ~9 ± 1.5% on average, and cirrus emissivity
was reduced by ~2 ±5% relative to what they should have been with normal air traffic. The changes are corroborated by a
consistent estimate based on linear trends over the period 2011 – 2019. The change in cirrus translates to a global radiative
forcing of 61 ±39 mWm-2. This estimate is somewhat smaller than previous assessments.
the magnitude of such an effect and whether this contributes substantially to the radiative forcing due to the aviation sector
remain uncertain. The very substantial, near-global reduction in air traffic in response to the COVID-19 outbreak offers an
unprecedented opportunity to identify the anthropogenic contribution to the observed cirrus coverage and thickness. Here we
show, using an analysis of satellite observations for the period March-May 2020, that in the 20% of the Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitudes with the largest air traffic reduction, cirrus fraction was reduced by ~9 ± 1.5% on average, and cirrus emissivity
was reduced by ~2 ±5% relative to what they should have been with normal air traffic. The changes are corroborated by a
consistent estimate based on linear trends over the period 2011 – 2019. The change in cirrus translates to a global radiative
forcing of 61 ±39 mWm-2. This estimate is somewhat smaller than previous assessments.
Date Issued
2021-06-02
Date Acceptance
2021-04-09
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (6), pp.1-6
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IoP)
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
16
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
©2021 TheAuthor(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content fromthis work may be usedunder the terms of theCreative CommonsAttribution 4.0 licence.Any further distributionof this work mustmaintain attribution tothe author(s) and the titleof the work, journalcitation and DOI.
License URL
Sponsor
Royal Society
Identifier
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abf686
Grant Number
URF\R1\191602
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
aviation-induced cirrus
aviation climate forcing
COVID-19
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE-RANGE
CONTRAILS
TERRA
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 064051
Date Publish Online
2021-06-02