Design and decision-making under uncertainty with application in future lunar resource operations
File(s)
Author(s)
Malone, Luka
Type
Thesis
Abstract
The utilization of space resources offers an exciting and potentially revolutionary way to develop permanent infrastructure away from Earth and enable larger-scale space exploration. As we look towards expanding humanity's sphere of influence further beyond the Earth, we must consider how such undertakings can be conducted sustainably. Significant uncertainties surrounding in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), such as the demand for in-situ produced mission consumables, make it difficult to value ISRU-based enterprises from a financial perspective, which in turn makes it challenging to sustain ISRU development and understand how ISRU systems can be sustainably managed. Furthermore, once ISRU systems are deployed, it will be a novel challenge to remotely manage complex infrastructure systems in a harsh environment. This thesis utilizes a real-options-based approach to study the decisions behind lunar ISRU design and operations under uncertainty. It uses a combination of economic analysis based on real options and serious games to study the strategic and tactical decision-making behind lunar ISRU. New thresholds for reasonable ISRU investment are determined that could enable a full-scale lunar plant by 2035, mitigating the risks that commercial stakeholders face. A human-based experiment gives insight into the human factors that influence decision-making under uncertainty when managing remote systems. A decision support system is developed that allows for more sustainable phasing of generic resource production systems under uncertainty. \rev{The core contributions of this thesis are therefore the creation of consolidated lunar ISRU sizing methods, a re-usable simulation game framework for use in real-time ISRU operations study, and the results gained through the utilization of these research tools.} Although this thesis focuses mainly on future lunar resource operations, its findings could also be applied to terrestrial mining to promote sustainable operations in harsh and remote environments.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2025-07-30
Date Awarded
2026-05-01
Copyright Statement
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC)
License URL
Advisor
Cardin, Michel-Alexandre
Cilliers, Jan
Hadler, Kathryn
Publisher Department
Dyson School of Design Engineering
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)