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  4. The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh
 
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The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh
File(s)
journal.pntd.0006453.pdf (7.8 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Chapman, Lloyd AC
Jewell, Chris P
Spencer, Simon EF
Pellis, Lorenzo
Datta, Samik
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterised by a high degree of spatial clustering at all scales, and this feature remains even with successful control measures. VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent by 2020, and incidence has been falling rapidly since 2011. Current control is based on early diagnosis and treatment of clinical cases, and blanket indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in endemic villages to kill the sandfly vectors. Spatially targeting active case detection and/or IRS to higher risk areas would greatly reduce costs of control, but its effectiveness as a control strategy is unknown. The effectiveness depends on two key unknowns: how quickly transmission risk decreases with distance from a VL case and how much asymptomatically infected individuals contribute to transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To estimate these key parameters, a spatiotemporal transmission model for VL was developed and fitted to geo-located epidemiological data on 2494 individuals from a highly endemic village in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. A Bayesian inference framework that could account for the unknown infection times of the VL cases, and missing symptom onset and recovery times, was developed to perform the parameter estimation. The parameter estimates obtained suggest that, in a highly endemic setting, VL risk decreases relatively quickly with distance from a case-halving within 90m-and that VL cases contribute significantly more to transmission than asymptomatic individuals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that spatially-targeted interventions may be effective for limiting transmission. However, the extent to which spatial transmission patterns and the asymptomatic contribution vary with VL endemicity and over time is uncertain. In any event, interventions would need to be performed promptly and in a large radius (≥300m) around a new case to reduce transmission risk.
Date Issued
2018-10-08
Date Acceptance
2018-04-13
Citation
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2018, 12 (10)
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/63587
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006453
ISSN
1935-2727
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume
12
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Chapman et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30296295
PII: PNTD-D-18-00089
Subjects
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Tropical Medicine
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
e0006453
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