Modelling diagnostics for echinococcus granulosus surveillance in sheep using latent class analysis: Argentina as a case study
File(s)Sykes et al. (2021) One Health (SI File).pdf (399.26 KB)
Supporting information
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato is a globally prevalent zoonotic parasitic cestode leading to cystic echinococcosis (CE) in both humans and sheep with both medical and financial impacts, whose reduction requires the application of a One Health approach to its control. Regarding the animal health component of this approach, lack of accurate and practical diagnostics in livestock impedes the assessment of disease burden and the implementation and evaluation of control strategies. We use of a Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (LCA) model to estimate ovine CE prevalence in sheep samples from the Río Negro province of Argentina accounting for uncertainty in the diagnostics. We use model outputs to evaluate the performance of a novel recombinant B8/2 antigen B subunit (rEgAgB8/2) indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting E. granulosus in sheep. Necropsy (as a partial gold standard), western blot (WB) and ELISA diagnostic data were collected from 79 sheep within two Río Negro slaughterhouses, and used to estimate individual infection status (assigned as a latent variable within the model). Using the model outputs, the performance of the novel ELISA at both individual and flock levels was evaluated, respectively, using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and simulating a range of sample sizes and prevalence levels within hypothetical flocks. The estimated (mean) prevalence of ovine CE was 27.5% (95%Bayesian credible interval (95%BCI): 13.8%–58.9%) within the sample population. At the individual level, the ELISA had a mean sensitivity and specificity of 55% (95%BCI: 46%–68%) and 68% (95%BCI: 63%–92%), respectively, at an optimal optical density (OD) threshold of 0.378. At the flock level, the ELISA had an 80% probability of correctly classifying infection at an optimal cut-off threshold of 0.496. These results suggest that the novel ELISA could play a useful role as a flock-level diagnostic for CE surveillance in the region, supplementing surveillance activities in the human population and thus strengthening a One Health approach. Importantly, selection of ELISA cut-off threshold values must be tailored according to the epidemiological situation.
Date Issued
2022-06-01
Date Acceptance
2021-12-03
Citation
One Health, 2022, 14, pp.1-7
ISSN
2352-7714
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
One Health
Volume
14
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
The Task Force for Global Health
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000731774300001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
1708CR001/VP1 (OPP1184344)
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Infectious Diseases
Echinococcosis
Surveillance
Latent class analysis
Bayesian inference
Diagnostics
Argentina
CYSTIC ECHINOCOCCOSIS
RIO NEGRO
HYDATIDOSIS
IMPACT
SERODIAGNOSIS
SPECIFICITY
SENSITIVITY
STANDARD
ERROR
FLUID
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 100359
Date Publish Online
2021-12-04