Defining the hundred year flood: a Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates
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Published version
Author(s)
Parkes, BL
Demeritt, D
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper describes a Bayesian statistical model for estimating flood frequency by combining uncertain annual maximum (AMAX) data from a river gauge with estimates of flood peak discharge from various historic sources that predate the period of instrument records. Such historic flood records promise to expand the time series data needed for reducing the uncertainty in return period estimates for extreme events, but the heterogeneity and uncertainty of historic records make them difficult to use alongside Flood Estimation Handbook and other standard methods for generating flood frequency curves from gauge data. Using the flow of the River Eden in Carlisle, Cumbria, UK as a case study, this paper develops a Bayesian model for combining historic flood estimates since 1800 with gauge data since 1967 to estimate the probability of low frequency flood events for the area taking account of uncertainty in the discharge estimates. Results show a reduction in 95% confidence intervals of roughly 50% for annual exceedance probabilities of less than 0.0133 (return periods over 75 years) compared to standard flood frequency estimation methods using solely systematic data. Sensitivity analysis shows the model is sensitive to 2 model parameters both of which are concerned with the historic (pre-systematic) period of the time series. This highlights the importance of adequate consideration of historic channel and floodplain changes or possible bias in estimates of historic flood discharges. The next steps required to roll out this Bayesian approach for operational flood frequency estimation at other sites is also discussed.
Date Issued
2016-07-19
Date Acceptance
2016-07-14
Citation
Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 540, pp.1189-1208
ISSN
0022-1694
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1189
End Page
1208
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Hydrology
Volume
540
Copyright Statement
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Subjects
Environmental Engineering
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published