Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The recent emergence of A(H7N9) avian influenza
poses a significant challenge to public health in China
and around the world; however, understanding of the
transmission dynamics and progression of influenza
A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover
transmission to humans, remains limited. Here,
we develop a mathematical model–Bayesian inference
system which combines a simple epidemic model and
data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction
with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases
from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate
key epidemiological parameters and to forecast
infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings
indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among
poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover
transmission. In addition, we generated accurate
forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human
influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that
transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can
be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover
avian influenza in humans is possible.
poses a significant challenge to public health in China
and around the world; however, understanding of the
transmission dynamics and progression of influenza
A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover
transmission to humans, remains limited. Here,
we develop a mathematical model–Bayesian inference
system which combines a simple epidemic model and
data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction
with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases
from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate
key epidemiological parameters and to forecast
infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings
indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among
poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover
transmission. In addition, we generated accurate
forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human
influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that
transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can
be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover
avian influenza in humans is possible.
Date Issued
2017-02-16
Date Acceptance
2017-01-10
Citation
Eurosurveillance, 2017, 22 (7)
ISSN
1560-7917
Publisher
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Journal / Book Title
Eurosurveillance
Volume
22
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of
the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You
may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate
credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate
if changes were made.
This article is copyright of the authors, 2017.
the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You
may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate
credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate
if changes were made.
This article is copyright of the authors, 2017.
Publication Status
Published