Statistical metamodeling of dynamic network loading
File(s)TR-B manuscript.pdf (629 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Song, W
Han, K
Wang, Y
Friesz, TL
del Castillo, E
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Dynamic traffic assignment models rely on a network performance module known as dynamic network loading (DNL), which expresses flow propagation, flow conservation, and travel delay at a network level. The DNL defines the so-called network delay operator, which maps a set of path departure rates to a set of path travel times (or costs). It is widely known that the delay operator is not available in closed form, and has undesirable properties that severely complicate DTA analysis and computation, such as discontinuity, non-differentiability, non-monotonicity, and computational inefficiency. This paper proposes a fresh take on this important and difficult issue, by providing a class of surrogate DNL models based on a statistical learning method known as Kriging. We present a metamodeling framework that systematically approximates DNL models and is flexible in the sense of allowing the modeler to make trade-offs among model granularity, complexity, and accuracy. It is shown that such surrogate DNL models yield highly accurate approximations (with errors below 8%) and superior computational efficiency (9 to 455 times faster than conventional DNL procedures such as those based on the link transmission model). Moreover, these approximate DNL models admit closed-form and analytical delay operators, which are Lipschitz continuous and infinitely differentiable, with closed-form Jacobians. We provide in-depth discussions on the implications of these properties to DTA research and model applications.
Date Issued
2018-11-01
Date Acceptance
2017-08-16
Citation
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological: an international journal, 2018, 117 (Part B), pp.740-756
ISSN
0191-2615
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
740
End Page
756
Journal / Book Title
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological: an international journal
Volume
117
Issue
Part B
Copyright Statement
© 2017, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261517306896
Subjects
dynamic traffic assignment
dynamic network loading
delay operator
metamodeling
Kriging
dynamic games
Gaussian processes
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-08-24