Optimal capital planning and long-term funding for urban rail organisations
File(s)
Author(s)
Xuto, Praj
Type
Thesis
Abstract
In major cities, rail systems are instrumental in ensuring sustainable growth and reducing congestion. However, for some systems, infrastructure reinvestment receives less attention than network expansion and short-term decisions such as pricing. Related to this, at a higher level, is how urban rail organisations are funded, which affects the quality of service, through both service level and asset condition. This thesis’s aim is thus to contribute to an emerging interdisciplinary literature with theoretical and empirical insights on funding and reinvestment decisions in urban rail systems.
Key contributions are centred around three core analyses. Firstly, a novel dynamic optimisation model was developed that extends the conventional approach to pricing and capacity provision by including reinvestment and asset condition variables. The model highlights the intrinsic positive impacts of long-term planning horizons on social welfare and infrastructure condition, with a converse negative impact from political cycles due to the mismatch between the shorter planning horizon and longer infrastructure lifecycle.
Secondly, a time series econometric model was developed to quantify the impacts of investment on metro demand and operating cost for two large systems, with a positive link between investment and demand over the long-term. Fare and service quality elasticities are also confirmed, with the latter’s magnitude tending higher.
Finally, a more qualitative analysis on funding was conducted, based on newly collected, very long-term (up to 100 years) numerical data from six large metros around the world. This provided new insights into funding sources used, how they changed over time, and their strengths and weaknesses – we conclude that the type of funding source can have an inherent, long-term financial impact on rail organisations.
This thesis utilises a diverse set of methods to put the spotlight of academic research on long-term planning, infrastructure reinvestment, and funding – and their roles for more effective urban rail organisations.
Key contributions are centred around three core analyses. Firstly, a novel dynamic optimisation model was developed that extends the conventional approach to pricing and capacity provision by including reinvestment and asset condition variables. The model highlights the intrinsic positive impacts of long-term planning horizons on social welfare and infrastructure condition, with a converse negative impact from political cycles due to the mismatch between the shorter planning horizon and longer infrastructure lifecycle.
Secondly, a time series econometric model was developed to quantify the impacts of investment on metro demand and operating cost for two large systems, with a positive link between investment and demand over the long-term. Fare and service quality elasticities are also confirmed, with the latter’s magnitude tending higher.
Finally, a more qualitative analysis on funding was conducted, based on newly collected, very long-term (up to 100 years) numerical data from six large metros around the world. This provided new insights into funding sources used, how they changed over time, and their strengths and weaknesses – we conclude that the type of funding source can have an inherent, long-term financial impact on rail organisations.
This thesis utilises a diverse set of methods to put the spotlight of academic research on long-term planning, infrastructure reinvestment, and funding – and their roles for more effective urban rail organisations.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2021-10
Date Awarded
2022-06
Copyright Statement
Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International Licence
License URL
Advisor
Anderson, Richard
Graham, Daniel
Publisher Department
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)