Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Hepatitis B is a global epidemic that requires carefully orchestrated vaccination initiatives in geographical regions of medium to high endemicity to reach the World Health Organization’s elimination targets by 2030. This study compares two widely-used deterministic hepatitis B models—the Imperial HBV model and the CDA Foundation’s PRoGReSs—based on their predicted outcomes in four countries. The impact of scaling up of the timely birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine is also investigated. The two models predicted largely similar outcomes for the impact of vaccination programmes on the projected numbers of new cases and deaths under high levels of the infant hepatitis B vaccine series. However, scenarios for the scaling up of the infant hepatitis B vaccine series had a larger impact in the PRoGReSs model than in the Imperial model due to the infant vaccine series directly leading to the reduction of perinatal transmission in the PRoGReSs model, but not in the Imperial model. Meanwhile, scaling up of the timely birth dose vaccine had a greater impact on the outcomes of the Imperial hepatitis B model than in the PRoGReSs model due to the greater protection that the birth dose vaccine confers to infants in the Imperial model compared to the PRoGReSs model. These differences underlie the differences in projections made by the models under some circumstances. Both sets of assumptions are consistent with available data and reveal a structural uncertainty that was not apparent in either model in isolation. Those relying on projections from models should consider outputs from both models and this analysis provides further evidence of the benefits of systematic model comparison for enhancing modelling analyses.
Date Issued
2020-08-10
Date Acceptance
2020-07-28
Citation
PLoS One, 2020, 15 (8), pp.1-16
ISSN
1932-6203
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Start Page
1
End Page
16
Journal / Book Title
PLoS One
Volume
15
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2020 de Villiers et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000561393800033&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
GLOBAL BURDEN
DISEASE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e0237525
Date Publish Online
2020-08-10