Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.
Date Issued
2021-12-01
Date Acceptance
2021-10-08
Citation
Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11 (12), pp.1063-1069
ISSN
1758-678X
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1063
End Page
1069
Journal / Book Title
Nature Climate Change
Volume
11
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000723552200002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
DEGREES-C
EMISSIONS
ENERGY
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Environmental Studies
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
PARIS AGREEMENT
Physical Sciences
REDUCTION
SCENARIOS
Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-29