Parameter estimation of binned Hawkes processes
File(s)Parameter Estimation of Binned Hawkes Processes.pdf (1.76 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Shlomovich, Leigh
Cohen, Edward
Adams, Niall
Patel, Lekha
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical limits on the accuracy of measurements, binned data is common. In order to use point processes to model such event data, tools for handling parameter estimation are essential. Here we consider parameter estimation of the Hawkes process, a type of self-exciting point process that has found application in the modeling of financial stock markets, earthquakes and social media cascades. We develop a novel optimization approach to parameter estimation of binned Hawkes processes using a modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm, referred to as Binned Hawkes Expectation Maximization (BH-EM). Through a detailed simulation study, we demonstrate that existing methods are capable of producing severely biased and highly variable parameter estimates and that our novel BH-EM method significantly outperforms them in all studied circumstances. We further illustrate the performance on network flow (NetFlow) data between devices in a real large-scale computer network, to characterize triggering behavior. These results highlight the importance of correct handling of binned data.
Date Issued
2022-04-11
Date Acceptance
2022-02-25
Citation
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 2022, 31 (4), pp.990-1000
ISSN
1061-8600
Publisher
American Statistical Association
Start Page
990
End Page
1000
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics
Volume
31
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-03-16