Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening
File(s)Glover et al 2018_Medical Decision Making_vol38_p439.pdf (1.64 MB)
Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies.
Date Issued
2018-04-02
Date Acceptance
2017-12-15
Citation
Medical Decision Making, 2018, 38 (4), pp.439-451
ISSN
0272-989X
Publisher
Sage
Start Page
439
End Page
451
Journal / Book Title
Medical Decision Making
Volume
38
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme
Grant Number
HTA - 14/179/01: Screening women for abdominal aortic aneurysm
Subjects
1117 Public Health And Health Services
1402 Applied Economics
Health Policy & Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-04-02