Macro-economic factors in credit risk calculations: including time-varying covariates in mixture cure models
File(s)Dirick_et_al_2016.pdf (170.3 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Dirick, L
Bellotti, T
Claeskens, G
Baesens, B
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is due to the fact that default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modelled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this paper, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank data set.
Date Issued
2019-01-02
Date Acceptance
2016-11-01
Citation
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2019, 37 (1), pp.40-53
ISSN
1537-2707
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Start Page
40
End Page
53
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Volume
37
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics on 16/11/2016 available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/07350015.2016.1260471
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Economics
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Statistics & Probability
Business & Economics
Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
Mathematics
Credit risk modeling
Macro-economic factors
Mixture cure model
Survival analysis
Time-varying covariates
DEFAULT RISK
REGRESSION
PACKAGE
EM
IF
Econometrics
01 Mathematical Sciences
14 Economics
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Notes
peerreview_statement: The publishing and review policy for this title is described in its Aims & Scope. aims_and_scope_url: http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=ubes20
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-04-27