Weighting and aggregating expert ecological judgments
File(s)Performance weighted aggregation_Submission_FINAL.pdf (1.53 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Hemming, Victoria
Hanea, Anca
Walshe, T
Burgman, Mark
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Performance weighted aggregation of expert judgments, using calibration questions, has been advocated to improve pooled quantitative judgments for ecological questions. However, there is little discussion or practical advice in the ecological literature regarding the application, advantages or challenges of performance weighting. In this paper we 1) illustrate how the IDEA protocol with four‐step question format can be extended to include performance weighted aggregation from the Classical Model, and 2) explore the extent to which this extension improves pooled judgments for a range of performance measures. Our case study demonstrates that performance weights can improve judgments derived from the IDEA protocol with four‐step question format. However, there is no a‐priori guarantee of improvement. We conclude that the merits of the method lie in demonstrating that the final aggregation of judgments provides the best representation of uncertainty (i.e. validation), whether that be via equally weighted or performance weighted aggregation. Whether the time and effort entailed in performance weights can be justified is a matter for decision‐makers. Our case study outlines the rationale, challenges, and benefits of performance weighted aggregations. It will help to inform decisions about the deployment of performance weighting and avoid common pitfalls in its application.
Date Issued
2020-03-23
Date Acceptance
2019-12-23
Citation
Ecological Applications, 2020, 30 (4), pp.1-17
ISSN
1051-0761
Publisher
Ecological Society of America
Start Page
1
End Page
17
Journal / Book Title
Ecological Applications
Volume
30
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2020 by the Ecological Society of America. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article, which has been published in final form at https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.2075. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Sponsor
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (US Agency)
Identifier
https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/eap.2075
Grant Number
TBC
Subjects
Classical Model
aggregation
calibration
equal weights
expert judgment
performance weights
Ecology
05 Environmental Sciences
06 Biological Sciences
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-01-23