The feasibility of co2 storage scale-up for climate change mitigation using a logistic modelling framework
File(s)
Author(s)
Zhang, Yuting
Type
Thesis
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report projects global subsurface carbon storage at 1–30 GtCO2 yr-1 by 2050. Regional targets reflect strong ambitions for net zero emissions, with projected annual storage rates of 0.075–0.33 GtCO2 in 2050 in the EU and UK, 0.3–1.7 GtCO2 in 2050 in the US, and 1.17–2.6 GtCO2 in 2060 in China. However, uncertainties exist due to geological, geographical, and techno-economic constraints. This study assesses the feasibility of regional CO2 storage targets using logistic growth models constrained by storage resource availability and historical deployment. A key limitation in current reporting is the use of capture capacity instead of actual storage rates. Reviewing 20 facilities, we estimate that 29 MtCO2 was stored in 2019, with a cumulative 197 MtCO2 from 1996–2020. Capture capacity overestimates storage by 19–30%. Modelling results indicate that Europe’s targets are feasible if offshore UK and Norway resources are available, requiring 9–15% annual growth in injection rates. In the US, demand can be met by the Gulf Coast alone, but projected growth rates (3–20%) exceed historical infrastructure trends, making some regional targets, such as California’s, less viable. China’s projections (18–24% annual growth) align with past infrastructure expansions, requiring a minimum 30 Gt storage base. Global feasibility modelling identifies six key regions (USA, China, UK, EU, Canada, Middle East) driving deployment. Many projections overestimate feasible growth, particularly in China, Indonesia, and South Korea. While some models estimate over 10 GtCO2 yr-1 globally by 2050, a more plausible benchmark suggests 5–6 GtCO2 yr-1, with the US contributing around 1 GtCO2 yr-1. This study offers critical insights into the geo-technical requirements of existing CO2 storage demands, enriching the broader discussion on the feasibility of gigatonne scale CO2 storage development at the global level.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2024-08-18
Date Awarded
01/03/2025
License URL
Advisor
Krevor, Sam
Jackson, Chris
Sponsor
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Royal Academy of Engineering (Great Britain)
Grant Number
EP/T51780X/1
Publisher Department
Department of Earth Science & Engineering
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)