The Crossover Time as an Evaluation of Ocean
Models Against Persistence
Models Against Persistence
File(s)Phillipson_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf (594.75 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Phillipson, luke
Toumi, R
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A new ocean evaluation metric, the crossover time, is defined as the time it takes for a numerical model to equal the performance of persistence. As an example, the average crossover time calculated using the Lagrangian separation distance (the distance between simulated trajectories and observed drifters) for the global MERCATOR ocean model analysis is found to be about six days. Conversely, the model forecast has an average crossover time longer than six days, suggesting limited skill in Lagrangian predictability by the current generation of global ocean models. The crossover time of the velocity error is less than three days, which is similar to the average decorrelation time of the observed drifters. The crossover time is a useful measure to quantify future ocean model improvements.
Date Issued
2018-01-08
Date Acceptance
2017-12-11
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (1), pp.250-257
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
250
End Page
257
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
45
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
©2017. The Authors.This is an open access article under theterms of the Creative CommonsAttribution License, which permits use,distribution and reproduction in anymedium, provided the original work isproperly cited.
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
model evaluation
persistence
ocean currents
GULF-OF-MEXICO
PARTICLE TRAJECTORIES
DATA ASSIMILATION
ADRIATIC SEA
PREDICTABILITY
PREDICTION
DRIFTERS
FORECASTS
ALTIMETRY
PRODUCTS
MD Multidisciplinary
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published