Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun's law revisited
File(s)IbragimovIbragimovOkunFinalAccepted.pdf (1.11 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Ibragimov, Marat
Ibragimov, Rustam
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of this article is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and theoretically justified econometric methods. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The article provides the results and discussions on practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons and evaluation of effects of crises and other structural shocks on the economies considered. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.
Date Issued
2017-01-01
Date Acceptance
2016-12-01
Citation
Applied Economics, 2017, 49 (34), pp.3453-3479
ISSN
0003-6846
Publisher
Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
Start Page
3453
End Page
3479
Journal / Book Title
Applied Economics
Volume
49
Issue
34
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Economics on 14 Dec 2016, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00036846.2016.1262519
Sponsor
Russian Science Foundation
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000400271400007&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
16-18-10432
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Business & Economics
GDP growth
unemployment
Okun's law
instrumental variable regressions
instrumental variables
exogenous and endogenous variables
instrument relevance
robust standard errors
seasonality
the 2008 global economic and financial crisis
COEFFICIENT
TRANSITION
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-12-14