Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review
File(s)Marburg_clean_FINAL.pdf (1.82 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Recent Marburg virus disease (MVD) outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this highly lethal infectious pathogen. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345), reported according to PRISMA guidelines, of peer-reviewed papers reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies and epidemiological parameters focused on MVD. We searched PubMed and Web of Science until 31/03/2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts, with consensus-based decision-making. To ensure agreement, 31% (13/42) of studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from MVD. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected MVD outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission and/or cross-reactivity with other pathogens. Only one study presented a mathematical model of MVD transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio for MVD of 61.9% (95% CI: 38.8-80.6%, I^2=93%). We identify important epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history for which there are few estimates. This review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of MVD epidemiology, and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future MVD epidemic responses.
Date Issued
2024-05
Date Acceptance
2023-08-03
Citation
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2024, 24 (5), pp.e307-e317
ISSN
1473-3099
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
e307
End Page
e317
Journal / Book Title
Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume
24
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309923005157
Subjects
Marburg Virus Disease
Systematic Review
epidemiological parameters
mathematical modelling
MVD
outbreak analysis
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-11-28