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  5. Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
 
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Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
File(s)
Parag - Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers.pdf (1.57 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Parag, Kris
Thompson, Robin
Donnelly, Christl
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, Rt, , is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, Rt, encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, rt, that is, the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of rt are more informative than those of
Rt. We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time.
Date Issued
2022-11-01
Date Acceptance
2022-04-22
Citation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2022, 185 (S1), pp.S5-S15
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/96951
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12867
ISSN
0964-1998
Publisher
Royal Statistical Society
Start Page
S5
End Page
S15
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
Volume
185
Issue
S1
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Statistical Society.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-05-26
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