Inflation, money demand and portfolio choice
File(s)AMNZ_2024_final.pdf (1.06 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Aoki, Kosuke
Michaelides, Alexander
Nikolov, Kalin
Zhang, Yuxin
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We estimate a structural, nominal, life-cycle portfolio choice model with exogenous housing tenure and use shopping costs to generate money demand. Homeowners (renters) with negative (positive) net bond positions react differently to changing inflation risks. The correlation between real bond and real stock returns emerges as the strongest inflation risk quantitatively and generates large increases in stock market demand for homeowners in a 1970s counterfactual. Higher expected inflation encourages stock market participation but affects negatively poorer households without access to that adjustment. A more negative inflation-bond return correlation pushes homeowners more into the stock market, whereas poorer renters move into money.
Date Issued
2026-02-01
Date Acceptance
2024-08-12
Citation
Management Science, 2026, 72 (2), pp.853-873
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
853
End Page
873
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
72
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2025, INFORMS. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2025-05-16