Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.
Date Issued
2018-08-17
Date Acceptance
2018-07-23
Citation
Nature Communications, 2018, 9
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
9
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
European and Developing Countries Clinical Trial Partnership
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Grant Number
MR/K010174/1B
MR/L012189/1
MR/L012170/1
CSA-2014-276
GAT.2162-01585030-SUB
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
PAPUA-NEW-GUINEA
ROLL-OUT
TRANSMISSION
INFECTIONS
EPIDEMIOLOGY
FALCIPARUM
NETS
ELIMINATION
PREVALENCE
CHALLENGES
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
3300