Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability
File(s)SSRN-id2233367 (1).pdf (1010.18 KB)
Accepted version
OA Location
Author(s)
Della Corte, P
Ramadorai, T
Sarno, L
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium—the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility—reflects the costs of insuring against currency volatility fluctuations. The strategy sells high insurance-cost currencies and buys low insurance-cost currencies. A distinctive feature of the strategy’s returns is that they are mainly generated by movements in spot exchange rates instead of interest rate differentials. We explore explanations for the profitability of the strategy, which cannot be understood using traditional risk factors.
Date Issued
2016-04-01
Date Acceptance
2014-12-02
Citation
Journal of Financial Economics, 2016, 120 (1), pp.21-40
ISSN
0304-405X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
21
End Page
40
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Economics
Volume
120
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Economics
Business & Economics
Exchange rates
Volatility risk premium
Predictability
Efficient currency portfolios
CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX
CONSUMPTION GROWTH RISK
FOREIGN-CURRENCY RISK
CROSS-SECTION
OPTION PRICES
HEDGE FUNDS
RETURNS
MARKETS
ARBITRAGE
MODELS
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-02-26