Statistical inference with M-estimators on adaptively collected data
File(s)
Author(s)
Zhang, Kelly W
Janson, Lucas
Murphy, Susan A
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Bandit algorithms are increasingly used in real-world sequential decision-making problems. Associated with this is an increased desire to be able to use the resulting datasets to answer scientific questions like: Did one type of ad lead to more purchases? In which contexts is a mobile health intervention effective? However, classical statistical approaches fail to provide valid confidence intervals when used with data collected with bandit algorithms. Alternative methods have recently been developed for simple models (e.g., comparison of means). Yet there is a lack of general methods for conducting statistical inference using more complex models on data collected with (contextual) bandit algorithms; for example, current methods cannot be used for valid inference on parameters in a logistic regression model for a binary reward. In this work, we develop theory justifying the use of M-estimators—which includes estimators based on empirical risk minimization as well as maximum likelihood—on data collected with adaptive algorithms, including (contextual) bandit algorithms. Specifically, we show that M-estimators, modified with particular adaptive weights, can be used to construct asymptotically valid confidence regions for a variety of inferential targets.
Editor(s)
Ranzato, M
Beygelzimer, A
Dauphin, Y
Liang, PS
Vaughan, JW
Date Issued
2022-05-01
Date Acceptance
2021-12-01
Citation
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2022, 34, pp.7460-7471
ISBN
9781713845393
ISSN
1049-5258
Publisher
Neural Information Processing Systems Foundation, Inc. & Curran Associates, Inc.
Start Page
7460
End Page
7471
Journal / Book Title
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems
Volume
34
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Neural Information Processing Systems Foundation, Inc.
Source
35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS)
Subjects
Computer Science
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
MODELS
Science & Technology
Technology
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2021-12-06
Finish Date
2021-12-14
Coverage Spatial
Virtual