Machine learning techniques to predict reactionary delays and other associated key performance indicators on British railway network
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Reactionary delays that propagate from a primary source throughout train journeys are an immediate concern for British railway systems. Complex non-linear interactions between various spatiotemporal variables govern the propagation of these delays which can avalanche throughout railway network causing further severe disruptions. This paper introduces several machine learning (ML) techniques alongside data mining processes to create a framework that predicts key performance indicators (KPIs), reactionary arrival delay, reactionary departure delay, dwell time and travel time. The frameworks in this paper provide greater accuracy in predicting KPIs through state-of-the-art ML models compared to existing delay prediction systems. Further discussion on the improvements, applicability and scalability of this framework are also provided in this paper.
Date Issued
2020-12-31
Date Acceptance
2020-11-29
Citation
Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: technology, planning, and operations, 2020, 2020, pp.1-19
ISSN
1547-2450
Publisher
Taylor and Francis
Start Page
1
End Page
19
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: technology, planning, and operations
Volume
2020
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems on 31 Dec 2020, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15472450.2020.1858822
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000604003100001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Transportation
Transportation Science & Technology
gradient boosting
machine learning
railway delay prediction
reactionary delay
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2020-12-31