Gas production in the Groningen field in the northern Netherlands began in 1963. Since 1991, many
production-induced earthquakes have occurred, the largest reaching magnitude M 3.5 in 2012. In
October 2023, the Dutch government closed the field, a decision which was justified by the potential
threat of larger earthquakes occurring with continued gas extraction. This outcome highlights how the
estimation of maximum magnitude for induced earthquakes can have important implications for risk
perception by regulators and the public. Thus, estimation of maximum magnitude for induced
earthquakes that are not physically realizable can lead to unwarranted conservatism. Over almost three
decades, considerable effort has been invested by a number of researchers to estimate the maximum
magnitude of induced earthquakes in Groningen. These efforts culminated in international workshops
focusing exclusively on this question in 2016 and 2022. The purpose of these workshops was to inform
the decision-making of an expert panel charged with formulating a logic tree for the maximum
magnitude of Groningen earthquakes. We argue that the evaluation of the final distribution of
maximum magnitudes is overly conservative in terms of the largest events induced in the reservoir
and, most importantly, the likelihood of triggering even larger tectonic earthquakes outside the gas
producing reservoir. In view of the serious and far-reaching consequences of maximum magnitude
estimates, we reconsider the approach of these assessments to draw lessons that may be critical for
future energy-related projects associated with induced seismicity.