Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks
File(s)Pfleiderer_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_064015.pdf (1.41 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Pfleiderer, Peter
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
Mengel, Matthias
Rogelj, Joeri
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.
Date Issued
2018-06-01
Date Acceptance
2018-05-08
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (6)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IoP)
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
13
Issue
6
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000433919200002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Paris Agreement
1.5 degrees C
global mean temperature
MODELS
BUDGET
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 064015
Date Publish Online
2018-06-01