Uncovering two phases of early intercontinental COVID-19 transmission dynamics
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an ongoing global crisis, but how the virus spread across the world remains poorly understood. This is of vital importance for informing current and future pandemic response strategies.
Methods: We performed two independent analyses, travel network-based epidemiological modelling and Bayesian phylogeographic inference, to investigate the intercontinental spread of COVID-19.
Results: Both approaches revealed two distinct phases of COVID-19 spread by the end of March 2020. In the first phase, COVID-19 largely circulated in China during mid- to late January, 2020, and was interrupted by containment measures in China. In the second and predominant phase extending from late February to mid-March, unrestricted movements between countries outside of China facilitated intercontinental spread, with Europe as a major source. Phylogenetic analyses also revealed that the dominant strains circulating in the United States of America were introduced from Europe. However, stringent restrictions on international travel across the world since late March have substantially reduced intercontinental transmission.
Conclusions: Our analyses highlight that heterogeneities in international travel have shaped the spatiotemporal characteristics of the pandemic. Unrestricted travel caused a large number of COVID-19 exportations from Europe to other continents between late February and mid-March, which facilitated the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted restrictions on international travel from countries with widespread community transmission, together with improved capacity in testing, genetic sequencing and contact tracing, can inform timely strategies for mitigating and containing COVID-19 outbreaks post-lockdown.
Methods: We performed two independent analyses, travel network-based epidemiological modelling and Bayesian phylogeographic inference, to investigate the intercontinental spread of COVID-19.
Results: Both approaches revealed two distinct phases of COVID-19 spread by the end of March 2020. In the first phase, COVID-19 largely circulated in China during mid- to late January, 2020, and was interrupted by containment measures in China. In the second and predominant phase extending from late February to mid-March, unrestricted movements between countries outside of China facilitated intercontinental spread, with Europe as a major source. Phylogenetic analyses also revealed that the dominant strains circulating in the United States of America were introduced from Europe. However, stringent restrictions on international travel across the world since late March have substantially reduced intercontinental transmission.
Conclusions: Our analyses highlight that heterogeneities in international travel have shaped the spatiotemporal characteristics of the pandemic. Unrestricted travel caused a large number of COVID-19 exportations from Europe to other continents between late February and mid-March, which facilitated the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted restrictions on international travel from countries with widespread community transmission, together with improved capacity in testing, genetic sequencing and contact tracing, can inform timely strategies for mitigating and containing COVID-19 outbreaks post-lockdown.
Date Issued
2020-12
Date Acceptance
2020-10-14
Citation
Journal of Travel Medicine, 2020, 27 (8), pp.1-9
ISSN
1195-1982
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
1
End Page
9
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Travel Medicine
Volume
27
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© International Society of Travel Medicine 2020. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Travel Medicine following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Jing Yang, Ph.D, Juan Li, Ph.D, Shengjie Lai, MD, MPH, Ph.D, Corrine W Ruktanonchai, Ph.D, Weijia Xing, Ph.D, Alessandra Carioli, Ph.D, Peihan Wang, MS, Nick W Ruktanonchai, Ph.D, Ruiyun Li, Ph.D, Jessica R Floyd, Ph.D, Liang Wang, Ph.D, Yuhai Bi, Ph.D, DVM, Weifeng Shi, Ph.D, Andrew J Tatem, Ph.D, Uncovering two phases of early intercontinental COVID-19 transmission dynamics, Journal of Travel Medicine, , taaa200 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa200
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Travel Medicine following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Jing Yang, Ph.D, Juan Li, Ph.D, Shengjie Lai, MD, MPH, Ph.D, Corrine W Ruktanonchai, Ph.D, Weijia Xing, Ph.D, Alessandra Carioli, Ph.D, Peihan Wang, MS, Nick W Ruktanonchai, Ph.D, Ruiyun Li, Ph.D, Jessica R Floyd, Ph.D, Liang Wang, Ph.D, Yuhai Bi, Ph.D, DVM, Weifeng Shi, Ph.D, Andrew J Tatem, Ph.D, Uncovering two phases of early intercontinental COVID-19 transmission dynamics, Journal of Travel Medicine, , taaa200 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa200
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa200/5935386
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Infectious Diseases
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
intercontinental transmission dynamics
air travel
population mobility
SEIR model
Bayesian phylodynamics
CORONAVIRUS
SARS-COV-2
CHINA
Bayesian phylodynamics
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SEIR model
air travel
intercontinental transmission dynamics
population mobility
Air Travel
Bayes Theorem
COVID-19
Communicable Disease Control
Disease Transmission, Infectious
Epidemiologic Measurements
Epidemiological Monitoring
Global Health
Humans
Phylogeny
SARS-CoV-2
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Humans
Bayes Theorem
Epidemiologic Measurements
Communicable Disease Control
Phylogeny
Disease Transmission, Infectious
Epidemiological Monitoring
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Air Travel
Global Health
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
1506 Tourism
Tropical Medicine
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-10-22