A probabilistic constraint satisfaction model of information distortion in diagnostic reasoning.
File(s)Hagmayer_Kostopoulou_Model_Information_Distortion.doc (114 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Hagmayer, Y
Kostopoulou, O
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Information distortion is a cognitive bias in sequential diagnostic reasoning. It means that assumptions about the diagnostic validity of later evidence are distorted in favor of the leading hypothesis. Therefore the bias contributes to a primacy effect. Current parallel constraint satisfaction models account for order effects and coherence shifts, but do not explain information distortion. As an alternative a new, probabilistic constraint satisfaction model is proposed, which considers uncertainty about diagnostic validity by defining probability distributions over coherence relations. Simulations based on the new model show that by shifting distributions in favor of the leading hypothesis an increase in coherence can be achieved. Thus the model is able to explain information distortion by assuming a need for coherence. It also accounts for a number of other recent findings on clinical diagnostic reasoning. Alternative models and necessary future research are discussed.
Editor(s)
Knauff, M
Pauen, M
Sebanz, N
Wachsmuth, I
Date Issued
2013
Date Acceptance
2013-07-31
Citation
Proceedings of the 35th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 2013
ISBN
978-0-9768318-9-1
Publisher
Cognitive Science Society
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the 35th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society
Copyright Statement
© 2013 Cognitive Science Society
Description
06.08.15 KB. Ok to add paper, freely available online
Source
Cooperative Minds: Social Interaction and Group Dynamics
Subjects
Diagnostic reasoning
Information distortion
Parallel constraint satisfaction model
Place of Publication
Austin, TX
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2013-07-31
Finish Date
2013-08-03
Coverage Spatial
Berlin, Germany