Subjective bond risk premia and belief aggregation
File(s)01_Main.pdf (5.28 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Buraschi, Andrea
Piatti, Ilaria
Whelan, Paul
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The forecasting literature has presented overwhelming evidence that the aggregation of heterogeneous expectations leads to improvements in forecast accuracy; however, outperforming a simple equal weight- ing scheme has proved challenging. This paper proposes an aggregation scheme of subjective bond return expectations based on the historical accuracy of professional interest rate forecasters. Our aggregate belief proxy outperforms equal weight and median weight combinations and is comparable to statistical projections even if its dynamics are quite different. With this measure at hand, we study the relationship between quantities of risk and compensation for risk and demonstrate a strong link to subjective expectations even if this is difficult to detect using realised returns.
Date Issued
2022-08-01
Date Acceptance
2021-09-01
Citation
The Review of Financial Studies, 2022, 35 (8), pp.3710-3741
ISSN
0893-9454
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
3710
End Page
3741
Journal / Book Title
The Review of Financial Studies
Volume
35
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Review of Financial Studies following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Andrea Buraschi, Ilaria Piatti, Paul Whelan, Subjective Bond Returns and Belief Aggregation, The Review of Financial Studies, 2021;, hhab115 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab115
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Review of Financial Studies following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Andrea Buraschi, Ilaria Piatti, Paul Whelan, Subjective Bond Returns and Belief Aggregation, The Review of Financial Studies, 2021;, hhab115 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab115
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Economics
Business & Economics
TERM STRUCTURE
EXPECTATIONS
PREDICTABILITY
EXPLANATION
COMBINATION
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
HABIT
Finance
1401 Economic Theory
1402 Applied Economics
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-20