Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa
Author(s)
Griffin, JT
Ferguson, NM
Ghani, AC
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations in
health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and
loss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmission
intensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we then
produce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252
(95% credible interval: 171–353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that active
case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12–86%) of these cases would be observed
through passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinical
malaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% at
low transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to be
reconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.
health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and
loss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmission
intensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we then
produce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252
(95% credible interval: 171–353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that active
case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12–86%) of these cases would be observed
through passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinical
malaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% at
low transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to be
reconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.
Date Issued
2014-02-11
Date Acceptance
2013-12-17
Citation
Nature Communications, 2014, 5 (1)
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
5
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0
Unported Licence. To view a copy of this licence visit http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/.
Unported Licence. To view a copy of this licence visit http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
MR/K010174/1B
G1002284
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
INTERMITTENT PREVENTIVE TREATMENT
SOUTHERN SANITARY DISTRICT
CLUSTER RANDOMIZED-TRIAL
CLINICAL MALARIA
TRANSMISSION INTENSITY
DAKAR SENEGAL
RURAL AREA
CHILDREN
MORBIDITY
TANZANIA
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
3136