Development of a pediatric Ebola predictive score, Sierra Leone
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.
Date Issued
2018-02
Date Acceptance
2017-09-17
Citation
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2018, 24 (2), pp.311-319
ISSN
1080-6040
Publisher
U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases
Start Page
311
End Page
319
Journal / Book Title
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume
24
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29350145
Subjects
Ebola virus
Ebola virus disease
Sierra Leone
case definition
child mortality
children
pediatrics
prediction
viral hemorrhagic fever
viruses
Adolescent
Child
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
Disease Outbreaks
Ebolavirus
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola
Humans
Infant
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Sierra Leone
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2018-02