Numerical comparison of mathematical and computational models for the simulation of stochastic neutron kinetics problems
File(s)Manuscript.pdf (2.38 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Gordon, Travis
Cooling, CM
Williams, MMR
Eaton, Matthew
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper concerns numerical comparisons between five mathematical models capable of modelling the stochastic behaviour of
neutrons in low extraneous (extrinsic or fixed) neutron source applications. These models include analog Monte-Carlo (AMC),
forward probability balance equations (FPB), generating function form of the forward probability balance equations (FGF), generating
function form of the backward probability balance equations (P´al-Bell), and an Itˆo calculus model using both an explicit and
implicit Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme. Results such as the survival probability, extinction probability, neutron population
mean and standard deviation, and neutron population cumulative distribution function have all been compared. The least computationally
demanding mathematical model has been found to be the use of the P´al-Bell equations which on average take four orders
of magnitude less time to compute than the other methods in this study. The accuracy of the AMC and FPB models have been
found to be strongly linked to the computational e ciency of the models. The computational e ciency of the models decrease
significantly as the maximum allowable neutron population is approached. The Itˆo calculus methods, utilising explicit and implicit
Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes, have been found to be unsuitable for modelling very low neutron populations. However,
improved results, using the Itˆo calculus methods, have been achieved for systems containing a greater number of neutrons.
neutrons in low extraneous (extrinsic or fixed) neutron source applications. These models include analog Monte-Carlo (AMC),
forward probability balance equations (FPB), generating function form of the forward probability balance equations (FGF), generating
function form of the backward probability balance equations (P´al-Bell), and an Itˆo calculus model using both an explicit and
implicit Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme. Results such as the survival probability, extinction probability, neutron population
mean and standard deviation, and neutron population cumulative distribution function have all been compared. The least computationally
demanding mathematical model has been found to be the use of the P´al-Bell equations which on average take four orders
of magnitude less time to compute than the other methods in this study. The accuracy of the AMC and FPB models have been
found to be strongly linked to the computational e ciency of the models. The computational e ciency of the models decrease
significantly as the maximum allowable neutron population is approached. The Itˆo calculus methods, utilising explicit and implicit
Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes, have been found to be unsuitable for modelling very low neutron populations. However,
improved results, using the Itˆo calculus methods, have been achieved for systems containing a greater number of neutrons.
Date Issued
2021-07
Date Acceptance
2021-01-22
Citation
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2021, 157, pp.1-27
ISSN
0306-4549
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
27
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Nuclear Energy
Volume
157
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306454921000372?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
EP/J002011/1
EP/K503733/1
EP/R511547/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Nuclear Science & Technology
Pal-Bell
Ito calculus
Survival probability
Extinction probability
SOURCE START-UP
PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTION
EQUATIONS
PRECURSORS
TIME
Energy
0299 Other Physical Sciences
0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-03-18