Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimization under levy copulas and regime switching
File(s)SSRN-id2802504.pdf (2 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Safarov, Nemat
Atkinson, Colin
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this work, we analyze a stochastic control problem for the valuation of a natural gas power station while taking into account operating characteristics. Both electricity and gas spot price processes exhibit mean-reverting spikes and Markov regime-switches. The Lévy regime-switching model incorporates the effects of demand-supply fluctuations in energy markets and abrupt economic disruptions or business cycles. We make use of skewed Lévy copulas to model the dependence risk of electricity and gas jumps. The corresponding coupled Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations are solved by an explicit finite difference method. The numerical approach gives us both the value of the plant and its optimal operating strategy depending on the gas and electricity prices, current temperature of the boiler and time. The surfaces of control strategies and contract values are obtained by implementing the numerical method for a particular example.
Date Issued
2017-02-08
Date Acceptance
2016-12-05
Citation
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 2017, 20 (1)
ISSN
0219-0249
Publisher
World Scientific Publishing
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Volume
20
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© World Scientific Publishing Company
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000395370500004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Business & Economics
Power plant
stochastic control
coupled HJB equations
Levy copulas
regime switching
STORAGE VALUATION
OPTIONS
MODELS
GENERATION
EQUATIONS
MARKETS
PRICES
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 1750004