This PhD thesis examines the interplay between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, two key global frameworks aimed at addressing urgent social, economic, and environmental challenges. Given the complex synergies and trade-offs between these agendas, the research explores the implications of various Paris-compliant climate mitigation strategies on the SDG Agenda through three studies with different indicator scopes and regional detail.
The first study, using a global model with detailed representation of atmosphere-related SDG metrics, focuses on the potential impacts of mitigation strategies relying on technological or nature-based solutions, and demand-side behavioural changes, on a selection of energy-environment SDGs. Findings highlight that while some strategies may lead to adverse effects on food and water resources, forest cover, those involving demand-side changes, could reduce GHG emissions while simultaneously improving air quality, lowering food prices, and reducing impacts on agriculture.
The second study, using a set of harmonised models, deep dives into how EU decarbonization pathways might affect SDG performances. Results indicate that ambitious climate actions could enhance sustainability, health, and agricultural productivity, particularly in countries currently lagging in SDG performance.
The third study combines modelling outputs with a species loss model to address the intersection of climate change and biodiversity loss, evaluating the effects of land-based mitigation strategies such as afforestation and bioenergy expansion or a shift toward plant-based diets in scenarios with increasing land protected areas. The analysis reveals that while bioenergy expansion may harm biodiversity, dietary shifts could substantially enhance biodiversity gains.
Overall, this PhD thesis provides critical insights into how the pathways chosen to meet climate goals can influence broader sustainability objectives, emphasizing the need for integrated and context-specific policy approaches. In particular, it highlights that demand-side changes and compensating policies emerge as critical to retaining the integrity of Paris and the SDGs when taken together.