Importance subsampling for power system planning under multi-year demand and weather uncertainty
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Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Hilbers, Adriaan
Brayshaw, David
Gandy, Axel
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
This paper introduces a generalised version ofimportance subsamplingfor time series reduction/aggregation inoptimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studiesindicate that reliably determining optimal electricity (investment)strategy under climate variability requires the consideration ofmultiple years of demand and weather data. However, solvingplanning models over long simulation lengths is typically com-putationally unfeasible, and established time series reductionapproaches induce significant errors. Theimportance subsamplingmethod reliably estimates long-term planning model outputs atgreatly reduced computational cost, allowing the considerationof multi-decadal samples. The key innovation is a systematicidentification and preservation of relevant extreme events inmodeling subsamples. Simulation studies on generation andtransmission expansion planning models illustrate the method’senhanced performance over established “representative days”clustering approaches. The models, data and sample code aremade available as open-source software.
Date Issued
2020-09-01
Date Acceptance
2020-05-11
Citation
2020, pp.1-6
Publisher
IEEE
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Copyright Statement
© 2020 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Sponsor
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9183591
Grant Number
EP/L016613/1
Source
PMAPS 2020 (the 16th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems)
Subjects
stat.AP
stat.AP
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2020-08-18
Finish Date
2020-08-21
Coverage Spatial
Virtual (originally scheduled for Liege, Belgium)
Date Publish Online
2020-09-01