Estimating Direct and Indirect Protective Effect of Influenza Vaccination in the United States.
File(s)Manuscript_clean.pdf (478.13 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
With influenza vaccination rates in the United States recently exceeding 45% of the population, it is important to understand the impact that vaccination is having on influenza transmission. In this study, we used a Bayesian modeling approach, combined with a simple dynamical model of influenza transmission, to estimate this impact. The combined framework synthesized evidence from a range of data sources relating to influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States. We found that, for seasonal epidemics, the number of infections averted ranged from 9.6 million in the 2006-2007 season (95% credible interval (CI): 8.7, 10.9) to 37.2 million (95% CI: 34.1, 39.6) in the 2012-2013 season. Expressed in relative terms, the proportion averted ranged from 20.8% (95% CI: 16.8, 24.3) of potential infections in the 2011-2012 season to 47.5% (95% CI: 43.7, 50.8) in the 2008-2009 season. The percentage averted was only 1.04% (95% CI: 0.15, 3.2) for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, owing to the late timing of the vaccination program in relation to the pandemic in the Northern hemisphere. In the future, further vaccination coverage, as well as improved influenza vaccines (especially those offering better protection in the elderly), could have an even stronger effect on annual influenza epidemics.
Date Issued
2017-03-25
Date Acceptance
2016-08-01
Citation
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017, 186 (1), pp.92-100
ISSN
1476-6256
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
92
End Page
100
Journal / Book Title
American Journal of Epidemiology
Volume
186
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Epidemiology following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Inkyu Kevin Kim, Paul Gargiullo, Michael Haber, Ivo M. Foppa, Manoj Gambhir, Joseph Bresee; Estimating Direct and Indirect Protective Effect of Influenza Vaccination in the United States. Am J Epidemiol 2017 1-9. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx037 is available online at: https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwx037
Identifier
PII: 3089949
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Bayesian inference
herd immunity
influenza
mathematical modeling
vaccination
SEASONAL INFLUENZA
INFECTIOUS-DISEASES
HERD-IMMUNITY
EFFICACY
CHILDREN
VACCINES
TRANSMISSION
CONTACTS
ADULTS
VIRUS
11 Medical And Health Sciences
01 Mathematical Sciences
Epidemiology
Publication Status
Published