On the Calibration of Multilevel Monte Carlo Ensemble Forecasts
File(s)
OA Location
Author(s)
Gregory, ACA
Cotter, CJ
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The multilevel Monte Carlo method can efficiently compute statistical estimates of
discretized random variables for a given error tolerance. Traditionally, only a certain
statistic is computed from a particular implementation of multilevel Monte Carlo. This
article considers the multilevel case in which one wants to verify and evaluate a single
ensemble that forms an empirical approximation to many different statistics, namely an
ensemble forecast. We propose a simple algorithm that, in the univariate case, allows one
to derive a statistically consistent single ensemble forecast from the hierarchy of ensembles
that are formed during an implementation of multilevel Monte Carlo. This ensemble
forecast then allows the entire multilevel hierarchy of ensembles to be evaluated using
standard ensemble forecast verification techniques. We demonstrate the case of evaluating
the calibration of the forecast.
discretized random variables for a given error tolerance. Traditionally, only a certain
statistic is computed from a particular implementation of multilevel Monte Carlo. This
article considers the multilevel case in which one wants to verify and evaluate a single
ensemble that forms an empirical approximation to many different statistics, namely an
ensemble forecast. We propose a simple algorithm that, in the univariate case, allows one
to derive a statistically consistent single ensemble forecast from the hierarchy of ensembles
that are formed during an implementation of multilevel Monte Carlo. This ensemble
forecast then allows the entire multilevel hierarchy of ensembles to be evaluated using
standard ensemble forecast verification techniques. We demonstrate the case of evaluating
the calibration of the forecast.
Date Issued
2017-04-03
Date Acceptance
2017-03-29
Citation
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2017, 143 (705), pp.1929-1935
ISSN
1477-870X
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
1929
End Page
1935
Journal / Book Title
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume
143
Issue
705
Copyright Statement
© 2017 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0405 Oceanography
Publication Status
Published